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Probabilistic seismic assessment of health-care systems at regional scale

Lupoi, A.; Cavalieri, F.; Franchin, P.

Lisboa, Portugal. WCEE, 2012, paper presented at 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, September, 2012., author retains copyright, 2012-09, PDF

This paper presents a model to estimate the impact of an earthquake on the regional health-care system and to evaluate its capability to cope with the demand of medical care arising from a seismic event. The probabilistic methodology recently developed for the seismic assessment of a single hospital facility, whose performance is measured in terms of the number of functioning operating theatres and of beds available, is integrated in this work within a larger analysis framework for the seismic vulnerability assessment of interconnected infrastructural systems, designed to account for interdependencies between transportation, utility networks and the buildings hit by a seismic event, as well as for all relevant uncertainties, especially in terms of distributed seismic hazard and physical vulnerability of the systems. The proposed model is applied to a sample infrastructure, made up of a regional health-care system and a road network.

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