The Earthquake Engineering Online Archive

Seismic hazard analysis: improved models, uncertainties and sensitivities

Araya, Rodrigo; Der Kiureghian, Armen

UCB/EERC-90/11, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, 1990, 155 pages (390/A718/1988A)

This study develops a new methodology for assessing earthquake hazards that allows the use of refined models of earthquake occurrences, sources, attenuation laws, and measures of intensity, the full incorporation of model uncertainties in the seismic hazard estimation, and the analysis of sensitivities of the seismic hazard with respect to variables and model parameters. The availability of this improved methodology enables the seismic hazard analyst to employ refined earthquake source models and associated attenuation laws, including the effects of source geometry, rupture directivity, and propagation of seismic waves, in the assessment of seismic hazard. The proposed methodology facilitates the analysis of sensitivities of the computed seismic hazard to various sources of uncertainties and to various model parameters.

Available online: http://nisee.berkeley.edu/documents/EERC/EERC-90-11.pdf (12 MB)